MASTER THE GAME
Why perfect basic strategy is the key to winning at blackjack
By Al O’Grady
As a blackjack dealer, I’ve seen all types of players come and go— advanced, semi-professional players, casual Saturday night players and complete novices. If I could give one piece of advice to all of them, it would be this: learn basic strategy. That’s it.
Learn basic strategy completely—not 90-95% accuracy, but 100%. Know what to do in every situation and apply it consistently, without exceptions.
It sounds simple, yet it’s astonishing how many players fail to do this. I’m not exaggerating when I say that less than 2% of the players I encounter, including high rollers, play with 100% perfect basic strategy all the time. That means 98% of players do not play optimally. Is it any wonder casinos are a license to print money?
Winners often credit their good luck when luck had nothing to do with it. Likewise, losers blame bad luck, but again, luck isn’t the culprit. I often hear players blaming everything but themselves when they lose: bad luck, another player’s decisions, the weather, a rigged game, or even the dealer.
Do you honestly believe that a dealer has some magical power to control the cards that come out of the shoe? If so, you’re mistaken. If dealers had such superhuman powers, we wouldn’t be dealing—we’d be playing and using our “magic” to bankrupt the casino!
Here’s the bottom line: before blaming anything or anyone else, take a hard look in the mirror. It may hurt your pride, but the truth is, you can’t expect to win consistently at blackjack if you’re not playing correctly.
Some players cling to the mindset of, “It’s my money, and I’ll play however I want.” That’s fair—this is a free country. But ignorance and arrogance come at a cost. As Einstein famously said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” If you keep playing poorly, you’ll keep losing. A fool and his money are soon parted.
If you’re consistently losing, examine your gameplay. Are you following basic strategy? If not, start. You might like the results.
How to Find and Use Basic Strategy
Learning basic strategy is easy and free. A quick Google search for “perfect blackjack strategy” will yield plenty of resources. Print out a chart and bring it with you to the casino (as long as it’s not stored on an electronic device). Many casinos also offer strategy cards—just ask. And as a last resort, if you’re unsure about a move, ask an experienced dealer. Most of us will gladly help because we want your tips!
The information is out there, but it’s up to you to use it.
Misguided Players and Common Myths
The players who truly baffle me are the semi-regulars familiar with basic strategy but who refuse to follow it completely. Some claim the casino industry created “The Book” to tilt the game in its favor. This couldn’t be further from the truth. Basic strategy originated in the 1950s, developed by four U.S. Army mathematicians and statisticians. The casino had nothing to do with it.
Ironically, casinos actually want you to play perfect strategy. Why? Blackjack already has a slight house edge—about 51-49 or 52-48 in favor of the house when you play correctly. With 24/7 operations, casinos know they’ll profit over time. If you play well, you’ll likely enjoy your experience, stay longer, or return in the future, possibly giving your winnings back to the casino.
Selective Memory and Confirmation Bias
Many players pick and choose elements of basic strategy to follow, often based on flawed logic. For instance:
“I never win when I double down against a 10.” “I never hit on 16.”
“I never win when I split 8s against an ace.”
Statements like these aren’t grounded in reality. They reflect confirmation bias—players remember the times things didn’t work out while forgetting the times they did.
Take hitting on 16 as an example. Against a dealer’s 2-6, it’s correct to stand. But if the dealer shows a 7 or higher, you must hit. Yes, you’ll bust often, but standing gives you no chance unless the dealer busts. Against a dealer’s strong hand, you have nothing to lose by hitting—even if it doesn’t work out.
Basic strategy is a percentage play, honed through millions of computer-simulated hands to provide the best odds. Winning one hand doesn’t mean you played correctly, and losing one doesn’t mean you played incorrectly. It’s called gambling for a reason.
The Choice Is Yours
Do you want to be a smart gambler, playing the percentages for the long haul? Or do you prefer to rely on hunches and gut feelings that don’t hold up under scrutiny?
The choice is yours. Good luck at the tables—and don’t forget to tip the dealer.
Al O’Grady has been a blackjack dealer for over seven years. He is a freelance writer with an economics degree and is currently pursuing a degree in mathematics.
