VIDEO POKER BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS
By Jerry Stickman
There are many choices involved in playing video poker, beginning with the type of game that you play. Some games are basic and offer few big payoffs. Others have several large payoffs, with accompanying reduced payoffs for lesser hands.
Each of these games can require a different level of bankroll. How much different? Well, let’s take a look at a few factors.
First of all, the variance is higher when more money is paid out on high- paying hands. For example, 9/6 Jacks or Better (where a full house is paid at 9-for-1 and a flush is paid at 6-for-1) has only one very high- paying hand: the royal flush. The variance of this game is 19.51. This is among the lowest variances of the popular video poker games.
8/5 Bonus Poker (where a full house is paid at 8- for-1 and a flush is paid at 5-for-1) pays a bonus for certain four-of-a-kinds. The variance of this game is 20.91—slightly higher since slightly more money is paid out in fewer hands.
Deuces Wild games pay 250-for-1 for quad deuces in addition to 800- for-1 for a royal. Lower-paying hands get reduced payouts, so more payoff money is concentrated in fewer hands—forcing the variance higher to about 25.7, depending on the exact payout schedule.
Double Bonus Poker doubles the payout for quad 5s through kings to 50-for-1 from 25-for-1 in Jacks or Better. It also pays 80-for-1 for quad 2s, 3s or 4s and twice that or 160-for-1 for quad aces. Some lower- paying hands are reduced to compensate for these higher payouts. By concentrating payout money in fewer higher-paying hands, the variance increases to around 28 (depending on the pay table).
Players who enjoy having more opportunities to grab large payouts like Double-Double Bonus video poker. This game is like Double Bonus Poker, except for the addition of what’s called a “kicker” with four Aces, 2s, 3s or 4s. This kicker is an Ace with four 2s, 3s or 4s, which pays 160-for-1. With four Aces, the kicker is a 2, 3 or 4, which pays a whopping 400-for-1—half of what a royal pays. Because so much of the payout money is allocated to so few hands, the variance of this game soars to almost 42.
So how much money will you need to feel fairly certain that you’ll be able to last through your playing sessions? When the variance is higher, so are the swings in your bankroll—both up and down. You’ll have higher highs, but you’ll also have lower lows. Just keep in mind: the higher the variance, the more money you’ll need to survive the downswings.
Without getting too technical, for the normal distribution in video poker hands there is a 95 percent chance that you’ll be plus or minus two “standard deviations.” A standard deviation is simply the square root of the variance. To determine bankroll requirements, we first need to determine how much play is going to be given. Many players go through about 600 hands per hour, so this is what will be used in the bankroll calculations.
Also, when making these calculations, we’ll figure on four hours of play per day for a three-day trip. This would be typical of a trip to Las Vegas. This adds up to 2,400 hands per day, for a three-day total of 7,200 hands. Also, since the recreational video poker player tends to play quarter machines, $1.25 per hand (max credits on a quarter machine) will be used in the calculations. You can substitute your own numbers for a more accurate result.
For those of you who don’t care about the math and just want to see the answers, skip this paragraph. Otherwise, the formula for determining the dollar amount of one standard deviation is to take the square root of the variance times the square root of the number of hands played times the amount of money per hand. In each case we have 7,200 hands. The square root of 7,200 is 84.85. We know that we should be plus or minus two standard deviations 95 percent of the time. This is what we’ll use for the bankroll. So, the formula to calculate the bankroll is two times the square root of the variance times 84.85 times $1.25. Now let’s look at the games mentioned above.
JACKS OR BETTER – VARIANCE 19.51
The square root of 19.51 is 4.42. So, 2 times 4.42 times 84.85 times 1.25 equals $938. In order to have 95 percent confidence that you’ll be able to play for 12 hours at 600 hands per hour, on 25¢ Jacks or Better, you’ll need a bankroll of $938. Keep in mind, this does not guarantee that you won’t lose your entire bankroll. There is a five percent chance that it can still happen.
BONUS POKER – VARIANCE 20.91
The square root of 20.91 is 4.57. 2 times 4.57 times 84.85 times 1.25 equals $970—slightly more than Jacks or Better.
DEUCES WILD – VARIANCE 25.7
The square root of 25.7 is 5.07. 2 times 5.07 times 84.85 times 1.25 equals $1,075.
DOUBLE BONUS POKER – VARIANCE 28
The square root of 28 is 5.29. 2 times 5.29 times 84.85 times 1.25 equals $1,122.
DOUBLE-DOUBLE BONUS – VARIANCE 42
The square root of 42 is 6.48. 2 times 6.48 times 84.85 times 1.25 equals $1,375.
It’s plain to see that the higher the variance, the higher the bankroll requirements. If you crave the potential bigger payoffs of Double- Double Bonus video poker, you’ll need to bring nearly 50 percent more money to be reasonably sure you’ll be able to play the length of your typical session. The excitement of a big win is real, but so is the increased bankroll requirement. You don’t see your fun get cut short due to being underfinanced.
