WHY DO SO MANY PLAYERS IGNORE BASIC STRATEGY?
A blackjack dealer’s perspective on ego, bias and missed opportunities
By Al O’Grady
As a blackjack dealer, I have seen a vast array of characters that have come to my table. They come in all shapes and sizes, young and old, highly intelligent to incredibly foolish, and they all have different bankroll sizes. As a hobby I like to be a student of human nature and try to figure out what makes people tick; how they do it and why they do it. A question that constantly baffles me is why is it that so many people do not play perfect strategy? I know there is a certain percentage that are just out with their friends on a Friday or Saturday night and are out for a few laughs. I get it. These guys are not blackjack experts by any means and I would not expect them to know perfect strategy. But I am not talking about that group. I am talking about the players that come to the table and are legitimately trying to win some money. This is the group that I find puzzling when it comes to their approach regarding basic strategy.
This is not an exaggeration, but of the regular players that come to my table, less than 2% play perfect strategy all the time. It boggles the mind. Even players with significant bankrolls are major culprits. Surprisingly, I have found that there is no correlation whatsoever between the amount of chips bought and the concepts of what to do in given situations. Call me crazy, but if I were to buy in for $1,000 or more at a $25 table, I would make damn sure I knew perfect strategy for all combinations before sitting down at the table. Admittedly I am an overanalyzing math geek by nature, but it is still bewildering that someone playing at that level doesn’t do basic research.
The information is free. You can do a Google search on the internet to find a chart. You can have it on your phone and assess yourself frequently. When you are at the tables, most casinos have basic strategy cards available for the players. Just ask. However, even though the information is free and readily available, basic strategy mistakes happen frequently. Why? I am reminded of three cliches: “A fool and his money are easily parted,” “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink,” and “A little knowledge is dangerous.” Instead of answering the question with overused cliches, let us dig a little deeper for some answers.
The biggest reason is confirmation bias. A lot of people refuse to hit a hard 16 against a dealer’s 7. Several others refuse to hit a 16 altogether. Let us start with the 16 against the 7. As we all know, 16 is the worst hand in blackjack. You will bust on any card over a 5. To their way of thinking, what if I stay on my crappy 16, hope the dealer’s down card is between 5 and 9 and now the dealer is in a busting position. The thing is, there is some logic behind that. That scenario can and will happen. When it does happen, a player using that strategy has had their actions confirmed even though their play is contrary to basic strategy. When it does not happen, the player has fooled himself that this is still the right way to go.
That belief is further compounded by sticking on all 16s regardless of the dealer’s up card. The player remembers his losses a lot more than his wins. Busting on a 16 is a regular occurrence, so why bother? The pain of losing is more impactful than the joy of winning. The problem is these players are playing with their heart and not their head. They are simply not playing the percentages. Playing basic strategy is not perfect. You will lose from time to time. There is no guarantee. It is gambling, after all. But that does not mean you should be sticking on a 16 against a dealer’s 7, 8, 9, 10 or ace. If it is so detrimental to hit on a 16, why does the house do it? The casino has done the math. If hitting a 16 had a negative expectation, then the casino itself would alter the rules so it would not have to face that situation.
Confirmation bias or playing with your heart and not your head is simply not a rational move. Another irrational statement I hear from players is they question the integrity and the origins of basic strategy. Conspiracy theories have run amok in society, and it has made its way to blackjack as well. There are those that feel the casino industry are the ones that have written “The Book” on blackjack strategy. They feel that since the casino offers you basic strategy cards, that is the way they want you to play so the casino can maximize its profits. Again, this belief has no basis in fact. If they only did some basic research into the origins of basic strategy, they would find that basic strategy was developed by four guys in the U.S. Army with math degrees during the 1950s. In an article published by the Las Vegas Sun in January of 2008, they stated that Roger Baldwin, Wilbert Cantey, Herbert Maisel and James McDermott, also known as the “Four Horsemen,” started their work in 1953. They published their findings in a 1956 edition of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, and a year later in a 92-page book called Playing Blackjack to Win.
Despite basic strategy being around for over 60 years and despite it standing up to scrutiny through millions of hands of computer simulation, people will still take liberties with it. If it is not confirmation bias or the questioning of the validity of “The Book,” why would players go rogue? I am left with one last answer—ego. “It’s my money damn it and I’ll play anyway I want to play.” That’s ego talking, plain and simple. Good luck with that strategy. They fail to realize one basic point. Just because you won a hand does not mean you played it right, and just because you lost a hand does not mean you played it wrong. Basic strategy will not guarantee a winning session, but it has been mathematically proven to give you the best chance of winning in the long run. Deviating from basic strategy because of a hunch or some success on an unscientific, incredibly small sample size defies logic. Einstein’s definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different result. Remember, there is a sign outside of Las Vegas for those that have their own systems—it says “Welcome.”
Bottom line, folks: if you want to maximize your blackjack playing experience, it’s essential to learn basic strategy and stick with it. By following the basic strategy, you’re making the mathematically correct decision for every hand, reducing the house edge and giving yourself the best possible chance to win. The odds are in the cards—so play smart and stay disciplined!
Al O’Grady has been a blackjack dealer for over seven years. He is a freelance writer with an economics degree and is currently pursuing a degree in mathematics.
